A Review of the Lower House Election Results and Key Themes Ahead 

Lower House Election Results

In the February 2026 general election for the House of Representatives, the ruling coalition significantly expanded its seat count. Out of 465 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 316 seats (an increase of 118 from the previous election), achieving a two-thirds majority on its own. Together with coalition partner Nippon Ishin no Kai's 36 seats (an increase of 2), the combined total reached 352 seats (an increase of 120), representing three-quarters of all seats. Meanwhile, opposition parties and independents were reduced to a combined total of 113 seats (a decrease of 120), marking a dramatic shift in the political landscape. With most parties across the political spectrum advocating for consumption tax cuts and policy platforms converging, the key issue became whether to support Prime Minister Takaichi or not — and as a result, the LDP rode a wave of Takaichi popularity to a landslide victory.

In the lead-up to the election, the ruling coalition had fallen below a majority in both chambers of the Diet, making it unable to advance deliberations without opposition cooperation. The reversal — in which the LDP alone now holds two-thirds of seats — represents a dramatic transformation in the parliamentary landscape.

The Significance of a Two-Thirds Majority in the Lower House

Holding two-thirds or more of the seats in the House of Representatives gives the ruling party extremely strong legislative authority. The most significant effect is the ability to override a bill rejected by the House of Councillors through a re-vote in the Lower House. Even when the two chambers reach different conclusions, a bill can be passed with the approval of two-thirds or more of Lower House members. This means that policy can be advanced even in a so-called "divided Diet." For budget-related legislation and key policy bills, the government can proceed through deliberation and enactment without relying heavily on opposition cooperation, significantly increasing the speed and certainty of policy execution.

Furthermore, given that a two-thirds majority is the threshold required to initiate a constitutional amendment, the election outcome has also heightened speculation that discussions on constitutional revision may now gain momentum — another significant change in the wake of these results.

Market Reaction

While the LDP's overwhelming victory was met with surprise, the market had been well aware of Prime Minister Takaichi's high approval ratings from pre-election polls, so it did not come as a major shock.

Looking back, it appears that markets began pricing in the departure of Prime Minister Ishiba and the onset of growth-oriented fiscal policy and strategic industrial investment under Takaichi almost immediately after the LDP's heavy defeat in the July 2025 House of Councillors election. The TOPIX broke through its all-time high and shifted from the flat trend of the past year into an upward trajectory, while long-term interest rates rose above the highs reached four months prior. In other words, the LDP's defeat was interpreted not as a negative development, but as the beginning of a transition to a new policy regime. Subsequently, when Takaichi was elected Prime Minister in October and high cabinet approval ratings were announced, equity markets and long-term interest rates continued to rise on the back of these tailwinds. The LDP's landslide victory in this Lower House election served as a further confirmation of the scenario that has been unfolding since last summer.

Key Themes Ahead

The key question going forward is whether the Takaichi administration can leverage its strong parliamentary majority to continue delivering policies that maintain public support. Previous LDP administrations built their foundations through intra-party coordination, but Prime Minister Takaichi's base rests on public support — making approval ratings an even more critical indicator than in the past.

The trajectory of real wages will be the decisive factor. In Japan, real wages have remained negative year-on-year since January 2025, as price increases have outpaced wage growth. Encouragingly, the pace of inflation has been gradually moderating. The Consumer Price Index for January 2026 rose 1.5% year-on-year*1, falling below 2% for the first time in three years and ten months. This is attributed to a combination of factors including gasoline tax reductions, the easing of the sharp rise in rice prices seen last year, and a decline in Chinese tourists. Sustaining wage growth while keeping inflation in check would help maintain public support, and these are therefore likely to remain the top policy priorities.

Gender Diversity Trends

Finally, let us consider the gender diversity dimension. In this Lower House election, 68 women were elected, representing 14.6% of all seats — a decline from 73 women (15.7%) in the previous general election held in 2024*2. As the LDP has a lower proportion of female members than other parties, the LDP's landslide victory contributed to pulling down the overall figure. The LDP's own female representation stands at 12.3%, an improvement from 9.9%*3 in the previous election, but still falls well short of the party's target of 30% by 2033, underscoring the need for further progress.

Viewed in aggregate, efforts to advance gender diversity in politics remain a work in progress. At the individual level, however, there are signs of meaningful progress — most notably in the fact that key cabinet positions are now held by women, including Prime Minister Takaichi herself and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. If her example inspires more capable women politicians to take on prominent roles and brings a greater diversity of perspectives to the table, more balanced policy decisions can be expected going forward.

*1　https://www.stat.go.jp/data/cpi/sokuhou/tsuki/pdf/zenkoku.pdf

*2　https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA093OX0Z00C26A2000000/ 

*3　 https://www.gender.go.jp/policy/seijibunya/pdf/hiritsu.pdf

Lower House election vote count data (Yomiuri Shimbun) ⇒ https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/shugiin/